Bitcoin After the 2024 Halving: Is the Supply Shock Already Affecting the Market?
Introduction
The Bitcoin halving event that occurred in April 2024 marked one of the most anticipated milestones in the cryptocurrency calendar. This event, which takes place approximately every four years, slashes the reward that miners receive for validating transactions on the Bitcoin network. With each halving, the issuance rate of new BTC is reduced by 50%, intensifying the conversation around scarcity, supply shock, and long-term market impact.
Now, several months into the post-halving period, investors, miners, and institutional stakeholders are closely watching price movements, network fundamentals, and trading behavior to assess whether the anticipated effects are already underway.
Bitcoin’s 2024 Halving in Context
On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin reached block height 840,000, triggering its fourth halving event since the network's launch. The mining reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, effectively halving the new supply of Bitcoin entering circulation.
Compared to previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the 2024 event occurred during a very different macroeconomic backdrop:
- Inflationary pressures were easing in some economies but remained persistent elsewhere.
- Institutional interest had surged following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
- Bitcoin’s market cap had already recovered significantly from its 2022–2023 bear cycle lows.
Historical precedent suggests that halvings often precede bullish market cycles, though not instantly. The months following these events have historically been marked by:
- Sideways price action or corrections before upward momentum builds.
- A tightening in miner revenue, leading to increased operational pressure.
- Growing attention from long-term holders and institutional players positioning ahead of potential supply shocks.
Initial Market Reactions and Price Trends
The immediate post-halving period for Bitcoin is often marked by uncertainty and volatility. This cycle is no different, as traders and investors assess how the market reacts to the reduced supply and increasing scarcity. As of mid-2024, Bitcoin's price has experienced a modest increase, but the true test will come as institutional demand and global economic conditions evolve.
Impact on Miners and Network Metrics
Bitcoin miners have been significantly affected by the halving, as the block reward reduction directly impacts their revenue. The difficulty adjustment, a key feature of Bitcoin's protocol, has also seen fluctuations. Miners have had to optimize their operations, leading to shifts in mining hardware usage and geographic mining concentration.
Institutional Behavior Post-Halving
Institutional players, including large corporations, ETFs, and hedge funds, have become increasingly involved in Bitcoin post-halving. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has brought in significant capital, with large inflows continuing to be seen in the months following the event.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The halving has altered the supply side of Bitcoin, with daily issuance now halved from approximately 900 BTC to 450 BTC. Combined with the growing demand from institutions and retail investors, this creates a significant tightening in supply.
Historical Halving Patterns vs. 2024
Bitcoin’s historical halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all followed a predictable cycle that saw price surges within 6-18 months after the event. The 2024 halving follows a similar pattern, though the market dynamics are more complex due to the increased institutional involvement.
Looking Ahead: Scenarios for the Rest of 2025
As we move toward the end of 2025, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will depend on several key factors, including institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and global economic conditions. Here are the most likely scenarios for the coming months:
- Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin could see a price surge above $100,000 if institutional demand continues to rise.
- Neutral Scenario: Bitcoin remains in a steady growth phase, fluctuating between $65,000–$80,000.
- Bearish Scenario: A global economic downturn could lead to a price correction below $50,000.
